Japan’s Premium Market: Bubble or Polarization?

With condominium prices in Japan’s premium markets reaching historic highs, some ask if we are experiencing a bubble. The data, however, points to a distinct “polarization” rather than a blanket bubble. When comparing the average prices of a standard 70-square-meter (approx. 750 sq. ft.) used condominium, prices in Tokyo’s central 23 Wards surged by 11.2%. Most notably, the ultra-prime “Central 6 Wards” and premium waterfront areas like “Yokohama Minatomirai” have surpassed the ¥120 million mark, driving this aggressive growth. Conversely, generic suburban areas like Tama saw a slight decrease of 1.5%.

Japanese and international high-net-worth individuals are not simply “moving to the suburbs.” Instead, they are strategically choosing between ultra-convenient city centers, prestigious waterfront districts like Yokohama Minatomirai, or high-value lifestyle destinations—such as Kamakura or Nagano’s alpine retreats, which have become premier targets for affluent expats seeking luxury second homes and high-yield investments.

Recent Used Condo Market (70㎡ / approx. 750 sq. ft.)

• Yokohama Minatomirai: ¥120M – ¥150M+ (Premium Waterfront)

• Central 6 Wards (Minato, Shibuya, etc.): Over ¥120.00 Million (Driving the market)

• Tokyo 23 Wards Average: ¥74.01 Million (YoY +11.2%)

• Tokyo Overall Average: ¥67.66 Million (YoY +10.1%)

• Tama Area (Suburbs): ¥36.90 Million (YoY -1.5%)